Results tagged “recession” from stevenfeinberg.com

If you are a college student preparing for the real world what do you do when you encounter boulders in your life?

Once upon a time there was a king who placed a huge boulder in a roadway. The King hid and watched to see how people acted. Most avoided it, some blamed the King for not taking care of the roads, but none tried to get rid of the boulder.

Until a young shepherd came along with his oxen. The young peasant saw the boulder, laid down his pack and figured out how to move the boulder off the road. After much pushing and leveraging his oxen, he succeeded.  And then, under the boulder he found a purse with gold and a note from the King saying the gold was for the person who removed the boulder from the road.

We all have boulders, what do we do when we are up against a rock.  Here are 5 ways to prepare yourself to create advantages, enabling you to deal with your boulders in college and looking for and finding jobs.

The 5 factors of advantage making

1) Find a horse to ride that is profitable.

Now is the time to create the future by finding a horse to ride. You have a dream, find a horse that will help you live your dream. Trout wrote a book about finding a horse to ride for your career. It could be an idea but that's a big challenge, if you have it, go for it. It could be a specific business or industry, perhaps tech or international business, or it could be an industry that will do fine during the recession. If you have professional interests and a career make sure you pick a horse that can go the distance. In a recession cash is king, so finding a horse to ride will get you to your destination. You don’t have to find one horse for you entire life. Pick one and ride.

2) Adaptability. Shift.

You must be able to shift your behavior. The people who succeed are the fastest and best adapters. The worse thing that could happen is if you are successful in your first set of interactions. Why? Because you will become overconfident, and it will be a false confidence. You will think you know what you are doing, and the likelihood is that you have only a partial understanding, but you were good enough and lucky enough this time to make it work.  Your adaptability should be based upon thinking your don’t know, rather than your certainty that you do. Therefore use doubt to your advantage rather than certainty to your disadvantage. Persisting in what doesn’t work thinking it does will get your fired.

3) Influence. Yes.

Whatever your field, if you want people to say yes to your request you need to be able to influence them. And no matter how much you think people will be reasonable, they make their decisions emotionally. Think about times when you spent money on something you couldn’t quite afford. Why? Because it made you feel good. Unless you are the brightest person in the room, and even if you are, if you can’t persuade people to your way of seeing things you may continue to be the brightest person in the room, only you’ll be all by yourself. Hard to make a living, even over the internet that way.

4) Networking. Connections count.

Yes it is who you know, your connections that will get you in a position for that first interview you actually want. There is an old saying, “Build your well, before you need the water.” Its better to build your connections over time and cherish those connections. Your college friendships are worth more than future jobs, they are a wealth of memories that you will cherish always, especially the one’s that you will laugh about, and are glad are way in your past. So be the first to help others. When I see a little old lady cross a street I’m the first to offer her a hand if she wants it. My thought is someone is doing the same for my family members. We are in this together.  Help someone. Doors will open you didn’t think possible. Recall the 6 degrees of separation. It’s not just an interesting idea.  Your connections and your network are more valuable than anyone can realize.  Help your friends and their parents will appreciate you. And when you need it most there will be hands to help you across the river. Ask yourself, how does this person feel about themselves in my presence? Not do they like you, but do they feel they can do their best, be their best, do what is most meaningful. If you can do that for people you will have a rich deep connection and network.

5) Leverage.  Be an Advantage Maker

Act as if you can create advantages for yourself and others. Look for leverage. Take on a job and do it better than anyone expected. Use your creativity and people will notice. Market your ability to create advantages, people will want to know what and how. Develop your ability to shift your perspectives. Shifting time creates possibilities. TIVO is a product that shifts time, watch it when you want to. Knowing how to shift time to create urgency is most marketers specialty. Shifting interactions changes the game. Managing your interactions will determine how fast you move up the ladder. Facebook and MySpace are services that shift interactions. Shifting perceptions influences outcomes. You can’t be a leader unless you can influence perceptions. L’oreal perfume, ‘expensive but worth it’, is a product that influences the perception of women across the land. Shifting structure changes behavior. The internet shifted the structure of business online. Be an advantage maker now.

These five factors are what the most effective leaders use. Now its your turn to 1) find a horse to ride that is profitable, 2) expand your adaptability 3) Influence others 4) build a network and 5) create advantages through leverage. These skills will travel with you not only in the remainder of your classes but also in your job search and interviews. They may not teach you in school, but this is what works in life. As you live these 5 advantage making actions, putting them into practice, doors will open you didn’t think imaginable.

We do not see things as they are, we see things as we are.   The Talmud

In these recessionary times there are leaders who always meet their numbers, do more with less, and despite this crazy economy are able to compete and come out on top. There are a few key reasons why the big winners are consistently successful, and its worth knowing how the big winners do it.

I've been studying these people, Advantage-Makers, for decades, and have figured out that they do it by asking a few simple questions that no one else asks.  I’ve began the discussion of questions in the previous blog, let’s take it another step forward.

The first question for Advantage-Makers is that they question the givens.

For example, FedEx CEO Fred Smith's, hub and spoke system questioned the routine of how packages should be transported. How did he think that sending packages in the middle of the night to Tennessee and then distributing to the rest of the country would work? It earned him a "C" grade in his graduate school class. The professor never consulted for him. But FedEx is guaranteed overnight delivery and as we know a huge success.

Any of you play golf? Jack Nicklaus, renown golf legend, was asked to design a golf course for the Caymen Islands. One catch. The Island is too small for standard golf courses. He didn’t ask golfers to change there swing, the given he questioned was the ball. He changed the ball so it wouldn’t travel as far. Just the opposite of what was expected. Maybe they just yell 2 when they hit it awry. Never the less, they play golf on the Caymen Islands.

Which brings us to the next question. George Prince, CEO of Synectics, an innovation firm, asked,  “What is the anomaly here?” That is, what is unexpected that seems to be pushing forth. This attention to what isn’t expected has earned the company millions and produced millions more for their clientele including many in the Fortune 500.

 A national Science foundation code breaker and scientist, asks,

“What am I not supposed to notice here?” As we talked at a restaurant he pointed to a series of ceiling chandeliers that were hanging above us. He described his thought process beginning with the notion, “What is attempting to distract my attention.” He pointed out that the chandeliers were attached about 30 feet above, and we weren’t supposed to notice how high the real ceiling was. Our attention was drawn to the light fixture and light, not the ceiling height. If most patrons had looked at the ceiling the restaurant would not have much clientele.

 My friend and colleague, George Silverman, Word-of-Mouth Marketer, asks, “What is obvious that is missing here?” It is his contention that in this information-overloaded marketplace, the product with the easiest decision path tends to win.  He works with companies to make their customers decisions easier.  His question, “What is obvious that is missing here?” leads him to systematically eliminate the most important bottlenecks and provide customers with exactly what they need when they need it.

My advantage-making question is, “How am I taking this ‘situation’ and making it what it could be? It drives counterintuitive solutions that have generated millions of dollars of profitability, created advantages that to others don’t even appear to exist and consistently enabled leaders and their teams to compete more effectively than others and gain credibility others lack. The key is to look for possibility, and shift your vantage point, rather than follow the expected procedure.

Other advantage-Makers have asked, “What is the real driving force, the leverage in this situation? By using this question the path of least resistance was found in a major negotiation that had been overlooked.

Once you ask the question you sort for answers, if you are doing it right the usual answers will be background while foreground will be the new unexpected solution. Just as Fred Smith’s hub and spoke delivery system and JacK Nicklaus’s golf ball for the Cayman Island sized golf course demonstrated. Real world unexpected advantages.

The difference between the managers who survive and those who fail is their ability to create advantages every day with employees, customers and vendors. 
60% of daily advantage opportunities are overlooked and missed by struggling managers, who, surprisingly, seldom ask, "What else should I do?", or "What am I missing". 


Are you providing the daily advantages to employees, customers and vendors that are that are hidden in plain sight? If not, you might want to start paying attention to both what is given, the anomalies and then questioning the givens.

Not all leaders are Advantage-Makers. Leaders with the penetrating insight and sound judgment of an Advantage-Maker are able to turn situations to their best possible advantage, create superior outcomes in the face of constraints, and guard against the designs of their competitors.

Are you ready to take your Advantage-Making ability to the next level? 
Many managers wait too long or in this recession play duck and cover. And worse, they repeat what they know instead of shifting. This is a surprising and unfortunate conclusion about failing companies and failing executives. In times of disruption, they rely upon the same strategy they used to succeed in the past.

In my book, The Advantage-Makers, I point out that Advantage-Makers are originators. Their impulse is original. To originate requires a shift. In a practical sense, new products and services aren't introduced every day, but your capacity for fresh thinking exists every day.

Advantage-Making is not as much creativity, as it is Shifting
Will you engage in strategic shifts when you encounter challenges? In essence, the code of the Advantage-Makers is based upon shifts ---- more specifically shifting time, interactions, perceptions and structures. Therefore, at your core, have you deliberately cultivated the capacity to shift?

Advantage-Making is a Craft
This is not a once-you-read-it-now-you're-done type of talent. Professional actors think of acting as a craft. Excelling in their craft requires learning specific distinctions to get into character. Musicians work on scales to keep their skills honed. Similarly, advantage-making is a craft that improves with practice.

Do the most with the hand dealt to you
While working with George Prince, CEO, of Synectics, we engaged in a research project to understand how to 'manage innovation with others.' One of the profound insights we discovered was each winning innovator had a p private question that drove their success. In George's case, his hidden question was, "Am I making this 'situation' what it could be?"

This questions orients and reveals an internal drive - an ambitious curiosity. George's strong intent and his way of operating had two tendencies. He would shift to different vantage points to view the issues - close up, helicopter view, people view, tech view etc, and he would imagine what those situations could be. In other words, he was generating a world of possibility. George's ongoing sensibilities was to make these possibilities practical, workable realities. Increasing the chances of spotting an opportunity begins with you exercising the craft. 

Contrast George's approach with a CEO who made money on a single business proposition that he implemented. It worked---until the market changed and he couldn't change with it. A difference exists between those who are guided by an Advantage-Making question and those who have a one-time win. The CEO stopped looking for vantage points; his personal question was something like, "Is this working?" Similar to a thermostat, he wasn't thinking or considering anything that could be done.

So consider which approach will win more often
"How am I making this 'situation' what it could be?"
vs.
"Is this working?"

Furthermore, if your internal question is, "How will they use this against me?" it will narrow your focus, and make Advantage-Making more difficult for you. Each of us has a question, find out yours, it's determining your level of success. You may be repeating the same old strategy without knowing it.

Don't wait. Use the Advantage-Making question today (there are others, but try this one now). You have to do more with less. You can cut, and should, where you are not getting value. But across the board cutting is a 'duck and cover' strategy. The real problem with duck and cover is eventually you've ducked and covered so much you missed the fact that you are now the cut back. 

Ask the wrong question, you'll get an answer, but the recession could turn into a personal depression.
If you absolutely had to make get more revenue, not just cut expenses, would you duck and cover?

The first step to your success in this recession is a question away.
Your future is on the line, ask the right questions.







Headwinds. That’s what you are up against. It stresses you and your people. It would be great if in the midst of all this chaos you could find a tailwind. 

Many motivational speakers encourage you to have a positive attitude, get rid of your negative attitude. Not a bad idea, but will attitude positive or negative change your business results or generate income? 

I was at a Las Vegas craps table, you’ll understand why they call it craps in a second. The guy rolling the dice was making lots of money. Whooping and hollering encouraging his luck. Everyone was getting in the mood, the good feeling of being on a roll. Like having the wind at your back. Intoxicating in itself. The gambler looks at everyone and says out loud, “Let’s have some good positive thinking here. Good positive thinking.” We all smile until… 

The table croupier (the dealer working for the casino, running the craps table) says, “Positive thinking?” Yeah these casinos are all built with that positive thinking!” A nervous knowing laugh erupts at the table, and we keep encouraging the shooter. Stay positive we whisper to ourselves. Some operate like this in every situation. Pathological optimism? Eventually everyone loses at the craps table if you stay too long. Crapping out is not something we can actually control. If you can heed the message you take your winnings and leave early. 

Positive thinking is betting on a wish. Nothing wrong with having a good attitude. It sure beats a negative attitude.

Let’s talk about those negative attitudes everyone is trying to talk you out of, including me. Some folks no matter what you say take on the devil’s advocate role, or Eyore in the Whinny the Pooh storybooks. Nothing will every work out, they shoot down all suggestions. Woe is me. Woe is you. Woe is the world. 

I call this kind of negative thinking ‘Swiss cheese thinking’ (my apologies to the Swiss). Swiss cheese thinkers only notice the holes in the cheese, not the cheese. A pretty empty experience. Neither ‘pathological optimism, positive thinking’ nor ‘Swiss cheese, negative thinking’ will actually bring in more revenue, improve performance or do more with less. They probably will make you miss opportunity. 

What will? Strategic Influence

Some people consistently know what to say, when to say it and how to say it to get people to say yes to their request. Their influence is unquestionable, I call them Advantage-Makers. They are masters at influencing perception. When you are up against a headwind and the disadvantages we are all facing, influence becomes a huge advantage if you know how. The ROI on influence is dramatic. 

At one company a simple, easy, quick psychological contrast positioned the product inside the customers mind so vividly that it increased sales by 546% almost overnight. They compared the inexpensive cost of ownership of the product to a much larger potential purchase. This single move dramatically increased sales. In this case they didn’t have to lower price, change the spec’s on the product, switch out sales employees or do a major reorganization. But without an influence strategist showing them the specific words sales had been flat. 

Imagine the time you needed to influence – your boss, employees, peers, vendors, customers or position your products and services for customers to reduce resistance and increase desirability. Strategic influence is the key to helping yourself with a tailwind. 

Do you have the magic to get people to say yes to your requests, your point of view more often? The key is the decision triggers in the brain. For example, during times of uncertainty the power of the herd mentality in non-arguable. Do you employ it? Or consider how powerful it is to tap the unconscious motivations of being consistent with the image you have of yourself. If you strongly value being a 'provider' for your family, you will do whatever it takes to make it happen. Knowing the psychology of Yes is worth millions. 

Is it more important for your argument to be valid or vivid? Many engineers I work with argue that it must be valid. I ask them how their valid arguments are working for them. Not well is the usual response. They fall on deaf ears. It actually isn’t deaf ears it’s a bungled influence moment. A more useful strategy you can use is to ‘to make your valid arguments vivid’ We then get to work on making their valid argument vivid, with a 75% improvement in their influence ability. This isn’t some theory, this is based upon real results. Wouldn’t that make a difference in your bottom line. In fact, wouldn’t it make a difference in your top line. And it begins by saying 'No' to silly attitudes, like always having positive attitudes or always avoiding negative attitudes as the key to your success.

Do you know the magic? It’s actually not magic at all when you know the influence strategies. A set of 9 specific decision triggers in the brain that ethically gets people to say yes willingly.
Millions were made during the Great Depression.  To position yourself to win,  consider shifting, or more specifically, the consequences of not shifting.

- As your market shifts can you shift fast enough?

- As your customer’s request change, asking more for less, can you multiply value so they stay with you rather than with your competition?

- As your competition adjusts can you shift to make it simpler for customers to stick with you?

- As your organization shifts to adapt to the economic shock, can you make it easier for your employees to play to win again, rather than play to avoid losing?

65% of change efforts fail in good times. And that number gets a lot worse in bad times.

Now is NOT the time to be one of the losers by making common avoidable mistakes. Your blind-spots are dangerous.  They prevent you from finding the right shift.

Choose the wrong shift, and you'll look really bad and your credibility will be squandered. Your leadership is at stake.

Here are some of your constraints:

- Competition

- Organizational silos

- Lack of alignment

- Time and delivery schedules

- Execution challenges

- Shortages

- Inefficiencies

- Workload outstripping capacity

- Talent

Shifting is not based upon positive thinking. It is, however, a result of thinking powerfully, harnessing your ingenuity, and developing choice-making powers.

In these times of economic peril, “It’s not the best who wins, it’s who is most adaptive.”

People confuse these two and it leads to poor performance. Arguably IBM was the best but they couldn’t adapt, or adapt fast enough, and they took a terrible beating in the marketplace until they shifted what they were doing.

The economic waves of change will make business dinosaurs... Adapt or die.

You’ve heard, “If you continue to do what doesn’t work and expect it to work, that’s called insanity.  Do something different!” 

OK!  But how?

Let me see if I can begin to help you here.

And, yes, it’s ok to get help on this. Many of the brilliant Advantage-Makers I’ve described in my book, The Advantage-Makers, collaborated, had mentors and advisors to successfully shift.

The ‘how’ to do things differently is in the art and science of strategic shifting.

You need maneuverability in your thinking.  And you need it now, not later.

One immediate way to do that is to identify your ‘attempted solutions;’

Doing more of the same, harder, seldom gets you where you want to be.

For example, telling your team to work harder, when they’re already working hard, seldom changes anything, and may make it worse.  You mean well, but it’s not going to work.  Most executives are surprised to discover they have blind-spots and need help to see they are repeating mistakes.

When you are not getting the results you want, ask yourself, how’s your approach working for you, really?

Don’t let your ego get in the way. If you can’t see it, ask others sooner rather than later, or there may not be a later.  One tell-tale sign is problems that keep repeating. Find the pattern.

Then, when you know the pattern, shift 180 degree and you’ll often spot solutions. You’ll be amazed at the results if done right.

Solutions to problems are often hidden in plain sight.

For example, Most of you know about the Avis slogan, “We’re Number 2, We Try Harder”.

But you may not know HOW and WHY that strategic shift worked and how it can help you.

Avis was on the verge of bankruptcy.

The more they tried to be Number 1 against Hertz, the more Hertz fought back and the further Avis dropped. A losing game.

Look at the clues in Avis’ persistence, their repeated ‘attempted’ solutions.

Don’t be fooled by the myth of persistence; ‘If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.’   What if the persistence is actually the problem!?

It was a brilliant 180 degree shift to go to, “We’re Number 2, We Try Harder.”

While this shift was ‘hidden in plain sight,’ it wasn’t easy because of the conventional wisdom that to be Number 1, you must persist until you drop.

(Influencing the executives to use this shift was part of the persuasion skill that made this effort a success; this will be covered in future blogs.)

For now, is your persisting in conventional wisdom a blind-spot as you battle the recession and economic downturn? If so, you may get lucky and still be around.

But this downturn is no time for luck, or for amateurs.

You must have a steady hand and do something sensibly different to create advantages.

Getting your people to think this way has huge upside leverage for you and the organization. Sadly, most people wait too long, and don’t find the real leverage.

I’m not talking about crazy swings, but shifts that count.

The skill of advantage-making enable you to anticipate and make moves others overlook.

Start thinking now: what is my winning move(s), my winning shift(s)?

Chuck Fox, CEO Chameleon Systems said to me, "The biggest mistake I made was not finding the winning shift sooner!" 

What’s the biggest hidden killer of business?

It's central to leadership, sales, influence, persuasion, marketing, performance, doing more with less, getting stuff done on time, taking the right tack, and outwitting your competition in the midst of economic uncertainty.

This is not a trick question.

It’s knowing how to manage interactions.

The road to hell is paved with mishandled interactions.

Sticky problems become stickier when you don’t handle interactions skillfully.

And it doesn’t have to be that way.

Your interactions with customers, colleagues, and especially with your competitors' strategy make a huge difference.

Jan Carlson, president of SAS Airlines, turned an ailing airline, SAS, around from $20 million in the red to $80 million in earnings by managing interactions. Specifically, he identified 5 significant "Moments of Truth" – the points of contact in your business interactions in which you create advantages or disadvantages. Like baggage handling, seat selection, boarding, and departing from the plane etc.

Carlson asked the question, "What business are we really in? We are not in the business of flying airplanes. We are in the business of providing for the transportation needs of the traveling public. Therefore, our real assets are not the airplanes, but the passengers. We have to focus on giving them quality service for repeat business."

And Carlson got to work influencing customer perceptions by managing the interactions. On average there were 10,000 daily passengers experiencing 5 Moments of Truth each flight. That’s 50,000 Moments of Truth each and every day.

Carlson was an Advantage-Maker. Shifting interactions changes the game. And furthermore, he shifted structures to accommodate to the new interactions with the customer. By shifting structures you shapes behavior with less resistance.

How many moments of truth does your business have?  Have you identified them?

Do you know how to manage those interactions?

Are you skillfully shifting the structures to shape customer behavior or aligning employee actions?

Advantage-makers spot opportunities in problems - and a recession can be a real problem. And there's the opportunity. Everyone wants their problems solved. 

Most people think about taking advantage of an opportunity, shift to focus on how you can take advantage of a problem. 

People became millionaires during the Great Depression.  And while I don’t know any personally, I don’t think they were all robber barons. Some businesses typically do fine, such as automobile and truck parts.

Be an Advantage-Maker inside your organization. You can either create the horse to ride or pick a winning horse. Your choice. Finding a horse to ride may be faster, simpler and easier at this time.

The first Advantage-Point: 

Adapt and Stretch - the person with the widest range of responses wins. Non-adaptiveness is costly. 

It's not the best who wins, its who is most adaptive

While most people are engaged in cutting and reducing, Advantage-Makers put their attention on creating more value.  Now is the time to distinguish yourself in the marketplace compared to the cut and reduce crowd.

Dr. Fleming discovered peninsulin when a pesty mold killed his bacteria culture. Not a good thing. Fleming made a dimensional shift in his thought process and saw the mold not as a problem but a solution to another problem - that of ridding unwanted bacteria. Solutions are waiting to be found in the recession. Shift your efforts to providing targeted advantages for your customers.  

A person with attention deficit disorder takes his malady - short attention cycles and becomes a master at disaster recovery – ever ready to multi-task and fix things rapidly. 

What solution is looking for the problem you face?

Money is on everyone's mind now. 

Use the code of the advantage maker: time, interactions, perceptions, structures. (T.I.P.S) with the two main problems people are concerned with: surviving and/or saving money. Focus on shifting one or a number of the T.I.P.S. and you may find your opportunity knocking.

For example, shift payments into the future, it will reduce resistance and accelerate sales. Speed is also a time shifting advantage. Taking too long will undermine your responsiveness to customers. Remember customers are really willing to leave now, applying the different shifts can create new value. 

During the recession efficiency becomes the catchword.

There is nothing more efficient than creating an advantage.

The 'R' word. 

'Recession' is on the back of most of our minds. Everything was going along just fine and then boom the worry machine starts.

A rule of thumb is that a recession is two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP. Are we in one now? We won't technically know for another few months.  But listen to your TV news reporters patrolling the stock exchanges, see the worldwide tumbling of stock markets, and feel the effects of your stock portfolio shrink and it's no longer academic. 

You are on the roller coaster and you didn't even know you bought a ticket. Today the market plummeted 300 points and closed plus 300. A 600 point swing. That's volatility.

How did the sky begin to fall (if it did at all)?

Is a recession a structural problem or a psychological problem?

Certainly, when fear takes hold, perception drives behavior and we head for the exits. But underneath that there is the structural issue. 

Structure drives behavior.  Just as a river has an underlining riverbed that shapes the behavior of river the underlying structure shapes the behavior of the US economy and your business.

Structural forces can strengthen and weaken the economy. Growth, productivity, value creation, fiscal and monetary policy must contend with the housing market slowdown, the subprime mortgage debacle, oil prices skyrocketing, the weak dollar, rising food prices, overextended credit card delinquencies and job losses that are immediately felt. These forces are driving the behavior of the markets and your decisions.  They effect our time horizon and what we think is possible.

I asked my stock broker if the sky was falling and he said this is the cycle, history will repeat itself, things will get better, but it will be rocky for awhile.  But I didn't want the history lesson. I wanted the structural forces lesson.  What and how were the structural forces at play so I could make an informed decision now, instead of a reactive emotional issue to my stock portfolio dropping. 

A recession is both structural and psychological.

To take advantage of the situation 
Advantage-Makers shift perceptions and work with the structural forces at play to form their judgments, or use their influence to change the structural dynamics. 

The stimulus package of fiscal and monetary policy, by the President, Congress and those proposed by the Presidential candidates must address the underlying structure. Short term and long term solutions must reduce structural impediments and structure us to be competitive to be able to win. Otherwise, a 75 basis point rate reduction by the Fed generates fear and uncertainty instead of stability.

We look to our leader for structural solutions. Specifically, their ability to spot the structural forces and influence them for the common good.

Think as an advantage-maker.

Tags